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Monday, September 29. 2008Barack Obama, Too Smart and Too Black to Win, The Bradley Effect
Choosing Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain put Jesus Christ and God himself on his ticket. In the debate Friday night McCain trumped up with the flag, patriotism, country, service and our troops. While Barack Obama gave us a college lecture with so many missed opportunities I turned it off. What a disappointment. Nothing memorable while failing to STAMP Republican Party on McCain's forehead, or to dumb it down, way down. I am seeing a number now on the Bradley Effect, which is somewhere between 5 and 15 points in polling errors. 6 points seems to be the specific number I am seeing in relation to this election. The Bradley Effect was named after the 1982 failure of Los Angeles Black Mayor Tom Bradley in his bid for Governor. Pre election and exit polls showed him an easy winner but George Keukmejian beat him by 1.2 points. A 6 point error in the polls. In 1983 Harold Washington was ahead 14 pionts in the polls for the Mayor of Chicago and won by only 4 pionts. A 10 point error in the polls. In 1992 Black New York Mayor David Dinkins had a double digit lead in pre election and exit polls and won by only 2 points. A 10 point error in the polls. Also in 1992 Black Virgina candidate Douglas Wilder was 15 points ahead in the pre election and exit polls and won by only 7000 votes. A 14 point error in the polls. In 1978 Massachusetts' Black US Senator Edward Brooke was 8 points ahead in election night polls and lost by 10 points to Paul Tsongas. An 18 point error in the polls. Or course many like to blame polling in general for these errors but come on. Politicians and the media don't shell out billions of dollars for crap. And anyone who has taken that horribly hard and boring 5 credit course called Statistics knows better. I know, I had to take it twice. So come November 3rd, Obama has to be at least 7 points ahead to squeak through this by one point. And once again, because of having a Fundamentalist Bimbo on the GOP ticket, we are going to get that same activist turnout of certifiable morons in the swing states who gave us George W. Bush. Twice. Sorry about the BIMBO... Hmmn... Ya know its W that is the Bimbo which would make Sarah Palin a Bimba. Right? My point is to make yall understand that the only way we can win this thing is by getting out the vote. It is too late for rhetoric and debate to make a differnce. It is all about turnout in the swing states. So please, on November 4th get everyone you can in your car, or rent a school bus - at the point of a gun if necessary - to go vote. Call Jesse Jackson for help if necessary. You can say what you will about Mr. Jackson, but calling out the vote has been his primary business his entire life. He knows something about it. Facebook |
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