Conservatives
are a gloomy bunch at the moment. Many believe that their party—the
Republican Party—has lost its way and that it has done so by abandoning
its principles. Aside from his foreign policy and Supreme Court
appointments, conservatives find little to love about George W. Bush.
His signature domestic policies include a vast expansion of
government-financed health care (prescription-drug benefits), and
increased funding for education while halfheartedly promoting vouchers
and school choice. Bush also signed into law campaign-finance reform
and supported a proposed immigration bill that would have allowed
illegal aliens a path to citizenship. The Republican Congress is even
worse, having indulged in an orgy of irresponsible spending. And now
the party is set to nominate John McCain as its presidential nominee, a
man who on several key issues has broken with Republican orthodoxy and
voted with Democrats. For conservatives, a return to principles is the
only way to be returned to power.
David Frum, a former
Bush speechwriter, begs to differ. "On the contrary," Frum writes in
his smart new book, "Comeback," "the evidence suggests that a more
consistent, more principled, more conservative administration would
have been even more soundly rejected by the public than the unpopular
Bush administration ever was." As Frum documents, every Bush policy
that conservatives decry is in fact wildly popular. Public support for
prescription-drug benefits ranges from 80 to 90 percent. And every Bush
policy conservatives favor is regarded by the public with great
suspicion. A majority of Americans regard the Bush tax cuts as "not
worth it," and would prefer increased spending or balancing the budget
to cutting taxes. In the one area where Bush remains unfailingly
popular with conservatives—foreign policy—public support has also
collapsed. According to the Pew Research Center, the number of
Americans who believe that military force can reduce the risk of
terrorism dropped sharply between 2002 and 2006, from 48 percent to 32
percent.
Conservatism grew powerful in the 1970s and
1980s because it proposed solutions appropriate to the problems of the
age—a time when socialism was still a serious economic idea, when
marginal tax rates reached 70 percent, and when the government
regulated the price of oil and natural gas, interest rates on checking
accounts and the number of television channels. The culture seemed
under attack by a radical fringe. It was an age of stagflation and
crime at home, as well as defeat and retreat abroad. Into this
landscape came Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, bearing a set of
ideas about how to fix the world. Over the next three decades, most of
their policies were tried. Many worked. Others didn’t, but in any
event, time passed and the world changed profoundly. Today, as Frum
writes, "after three decades of tax cutting, most Americans no longer
pay very much income tax." Inflation has been tamed, the economy does
not seem overregulated to most, and crime is not at the forefront of
people’s consciousness. The culture has proved robust, and has in fact
been enriched and broadened by its diversity. Abroad, the cold war is
won and America sits atop an increasingly capitalist world. Whatever
our problems, an even bigger military and more unilateralism are not
seen as the solution.
Today’s world has a different set
of problems. A robust economy has not lifted the median wages of
Americans by much. Most workers are insecure about health care, and
most corporations are unnerved by its rising costs. Globalization is
seen as a threat, bringing fierce competition from dozens of countries.
The danger of Islamic militancy remains real and lasting, but few
Americans believe they understand the phenomenon or know how best to
combat it. They see our addiction to oil and the degradation of the
environment as real dangers to a stable and successful future. Most
crucially, Americans’ views of the state are shifting. They don’t want
bigger government—a poll last year found that a majority (57 percent)
still believe that government makes it harder for people to get ahead
in life—but they do want a smarter government, one that can help them
be safe, secure and well prepared for political and economic
challenges. In this context, conservative slogans sound weirdly
anachronistic, like watching an old TV show from … well, from the
1970s.
"The Emerging Democratic Majority," written in
2002, makes the case that perhaps for these broad reasons, the
conservative tilt in U.S. politics is fast diminishing. It gained a
brief respite after 9/11, when raised fears and heightened nationalism
played to Republican advantages. But the trends are clear. Authors John
B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira note that several large groups have begun to
vote Democratic consistently—women, college-educated professionals,
youth and minorities. With the recent furor over immigration, the
battle for Latinos and Asian-Americans is probably lost for the
Republicans. Both groups voted solidly Democratic in 2006.
Political
ideologies do not exist in a vacuum. They need to meet the problems of
the world as it exists. Ordinary conservatives understand this, which
may be why—despite the urgings of their ideological gurus—they have
voted for McCain. He seems to understand that a new world requires new
thinking.